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Fannie May Reports - March 2024




Prediction:  An educated guess about what might happen in the future. 

While a prediction is an educated guess, when the prediction originates from Fannie Mae, we tend to give it the weight it deserves. Their research is based on actual market data and is vetted by economic experts. What follows is Fannie Mae's thoughts about the current market and where it MAY be going. 





Single-family home prices rose by 7.1 percent from Q4 2022 to Q4 2023, as per the latest Fannie Mae Home Price Index (HPI). Looking ahead, a 3.2 percent increase is expected for 2024.




Existing Home Sales

Existing home sales were reported at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 4.00 million in January. Fannie Mae has revised downward their forecast modestly through 2025, largely due to the higher projected interest rate environment, though they continue to believe that existing sales will trend upward over the forecast horizon.




Fannie Mae has adjusted their home sales forecast downward due to rising interest rates, but still anticipate overall growth in 2024.

  • Higher mortgage rates have slowed home purchases, with January's existing home sales reflecting lower rates from late 2023. Pending sales dropped in January, suggesting a February decline.

  • While short-term sales may dip, Fannie Mae expects a gradual increase throughout the year. New listings continue to rise, indicating a healthy market. They anticipate sales reaching 4.40 million units by year-end.

  • Despite supply constraints, rising listings should ease market tightness and moderate price growth.




Single-Family Housing Starts

In January, single-family housing starts declined to a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 1.00 million, while permits increased to 1.02 million. Fannie Mae anticipates a first-quarter pullback in 2024, revising their forecast downward primarily due to the higher interest rate forecast. Despite this, they maintain their expectation that the limited availability of existing homes for sale will drive new home construction in the medium term.




Mortgage Rate Forecasts

After the rise in February, Fannie Mae's interest rate forecast has been revised this month. They anticipate the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to average 6.6 percent in 2024 and 6.2 percent in 2025. While Fannie Mae has upgraded their forecast slightly, interest rates remain volatile due to changes in Fed policy expectations, posing risks to their outlook.



Contact Valley Realty Associates today to learn more about the Harrisonburg, Virginia and Shenandoah Valley housing market.

Phone: 540.236.5800              Email:

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